Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 7 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 7 MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1419 MCO 19:35 → DAL 21:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:15	DAL 07:50	4%	1%	0.8%	93%
WN 738 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:50	DAL 09:25	9%	2%	0.9%	80%
WN 167 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:25	DAL 11:00	15%	3%	10.3%	73%
WN 380 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DAL 11:55	15%	4%	11.8%	65%
WN 1402 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:00	DAL 17:50	28%	9%	17.6%	58%
WN 1973 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:50	DAL 23:30	32%	9%	17.4%	56%
WN 1419 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	DAL 21:20	36%	11%	17.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON