Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2745 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2745 MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	5%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	11%	4%	10.4%	83%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	MCO 10:40	DCA 12:59	12%	5%	10.5%	93%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	12%	5%	7.9%	86%
WN 1908 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:45	DCA 12:00	16%	4%	10.3%	75%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	19%	10%	17.3%	70%
AA 2104 American Flight history →	MCO 12:13	DCA 14:31	19%	7%	15.9%	77%
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 20:42	DCA 23:00	23%	10%	17.7%	58%
AA 2062 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	DCA 16:59	25%	9%	18.3%	72%
WN 1188 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:55	28%	8%	17.6%	53%
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	29%	14%	17.6%	59%
WN 2627 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:20	DCA 22:50	31%	14%	17.4%	40%
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	37%	21%	17.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON