Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2628 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2628 MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 2632 MCO 16:20 → DEN 18:45 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2628 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:20	DEN 08:10	5%	1%	0.7%	98%
UA 1714 United Flight history →	MCO 08:00	DEN 10:02	8%	3%	10.2%	94%
F9 1733 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:35	DEN 07:33	9%	3%	1.0%	91%
WN 2629 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:10	DEN 10:00	10%	2%	10.2%	84%
UA 1022 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	DEN 12:00	10%	3%	10.3%	90%
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	11%	4%	15.0%	93%
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	18%	7%	17.3%	69%
WN 2631 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:30	DEN 14:20	18%	4%	15.7%	60%
UA 2845 United Flight history →	MCO 15:41	DEN 18:09	19%	6%	18.4%	86%
F9 3311 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:43	DEN 23:00	20%	9%	17.6%	76%
WN 2633 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:25	DEN 20:55	25%	8%	17.5%	63%
WN 2632 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:20	DEN 18:45	29%	8%	17.3%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	50m Dallas	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	5h 30m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON