Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2677 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2677 MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2117 MCO 19:37 → DFW 21:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	5%	2%	1.0%	93%
AA 2975 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	DFW 08:29	7%	2%	1.0%	87%
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	10%	3%	1.0%	89%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	10%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 2172 American Flight history →	MCO 08:31	DFW 10:30	11%	4%	7.1%	84%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	14%	4%	7.3%	84%
AA 2124 American Flight history →	MCO 11:16	DFW 13:07	15%	6%	15.3%	84%
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:40	DFW 10:35	17%	7%	10.2%	83%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	MCO 14:24	DFW 16:35	21%	8%	17.4%	63%
AA 2143 American Flight history →	MCO 15:45	DFW 17:47	25%	9%	17.5%	46%
AA 2385 American Flight history →	MCO 18:26	DFW 20:30	26%	10%	17.2%	30%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	MCO 17:47	DFW 19:58	26%	10%	15.9%	57%
AA 2097 American Flight history →	MCO 16:47	DFW 18:50	26%	10%	17.0%	40%
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:08	DFW 19:15	28%	13%	17.7%	76%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	MCO 19:37	DFW 21:36	31%	11%	17.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON