Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1201 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1201 MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2713 MCO 15:01 → DTW 17:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1201 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:05	DTW 08:54	4%	2%	0.9%	93%
DL 2845 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:02	DTW 11:45	9%	3%	11.3%	91%
F9 2529 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:07	DTW 11:55	15%	5%	10.5%	78%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:28	DTW 15:16	15%	4%	15.2%	79%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:13	DTW 17:08	21%	6%	18.1%	69%
DL 2003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:05	DTW 19:04	21%	6%	17.4%	59%
DL 1133 Delta Flight history →	MCO 21:08	DTW 23:59	21%	7%	17.5%	65%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	21%	8%	17.5%	62%
F9 2713 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:01	DTW 17:51	23%	9%	18.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON