Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1105 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 1105 MCO 06:30 → EWR 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 17:00 → EWR 19:51 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	4%	1%	1.0%	95%
UA 577 United Flight history →	MCO 07:40	EWR 10:25	5%	2%	1.0%	92%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	8%	2%	9.2%	91%
UA 2120 United Flight history →	MCO 10:22	EWR 13:05	9%	4%	10.1%	88%
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:40	EWR 10:31	10%	5%	1.2%	90%
UA 663 United Flight history →	MCO 11:45	EWR 14:30	15%	7%	15.3%	82%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	24%	10%	16.4%	74%
UA 583 United Flight history →	MCO 18:05	EWR 20:59	28%	10%	17.1%	41%
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:07	EWR 19:00	28%	12%	16.9%	63%
UA 1651 United Flight history →	MCO 19:09	EWR 22:05	28%	10%	17.1%	55%
B6 128 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:59	EWR 17:50	38%	15%	17.7%	69%
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:00	EWR 19:51	45%	21%	16.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON