Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 2547 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–44%.

Safest bet that day B6 2547 MCO 10:05 → FLL 11:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	25%	9%	11.9%	80%
WN 1459 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:30	FLL 22:45	37%	16%	17.5%	63%
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	44%	23%	17.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON