tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 1369 at 09:55, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 1369 Frontier Flight history → MCO 09:55 GRR 12:46 12% 6% 10.5% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 13m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938 3h 20m Chicago ORD 11:56 → GRR 14:05AA 3553 · flown by Envoy 7h 35m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 3h 29m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → GRR 15:25DL 3865 · flown by SkyWest 8h 25m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 4h 00m Chicago MDW 13:15 → GRR 15:05WN 1893 7h 40m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:40 → EWR 10:25UA 577 3h 27m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → GRR 10:52AA 1890 5h 52m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 1h 19m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 5h 41m 94% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 12:25 → GRR 14:05WN 4849 6h 25m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:13 → DTW 17:08DL 1747 52m Detroit DTW 18:00 → GRR 19:01DL 5800 · flown by Republic 4h 48m 71% 53%
AmericanDetails → MCO 19:34 → CLT 21:39AA 2100 49m Charlotte CLT 22:28 → GRR 00:20 +1AA 3113 4h 46m 65% 40%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:47 → DFW 18:50AA 2097 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:40 → GRR 23:09AA 981 6h 22m 73% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON