Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2636 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2636 MCO 06:55 → HOU 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4493 MCO 19:35 → HOU 21:05 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2636 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:55	HOU 08:25	5%	2%	1.9%	97%
WN 2637 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:05	HOU 09:35	9%	2%	12.7%	98%
WN 3174 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:40	HOU 11:10	15%	3%	12.7%	90%
WN 5061 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:25	HOU 13:50	24%	5%	16.7%	80%
WN 4654 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:40	HOU 18:15	31%	10%	17.8%	53%
WN 2645 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:20	HOU 23:50	34%	10%	17.8%	52%
WN 4493 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	HOU 21:05	36%	13%	18.0%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON