Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 276 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 276 MCO 08:55 → IAD 11:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4230 MCO 16:13 → IAD 18:33 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 276 United Flight history →	MCO 08:55	IAD 11:14	7%	3%	11.7%	95%
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	10%	3%	11.7%	93%
UA 2065 United Flight history →	MCO 13:31	IAD 15:50	13%	5%	17.4%	83%
UA 413 United Flight history →	MCO 16:45	IAD 19:08	18%	8%	17.4%	73%
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	20%	9%	17.5%	67%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:13	IAD 18:33	27%	12%	17.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON