Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 468 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 468 MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3469 MCO 16:36 → IAH 18:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	7%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	9%	3%	10.4%	88%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	13%	4%	15.2%	95%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	16%	6%	18.2%	87%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	MCO 15:45	IAH 17:24	18%	7%	19.0%	62%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	18%	9%	17.7%	66%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:45	18%	5%	1.1%	87%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	MCO 19:20	IAH 20:55	19%	9%	17.7%	68%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:36	IAH 18:25	28%	11%	17.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON