Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2642 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2642 MCO 06:35 → IND 08:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4591 MCO 20:45 → IND 23:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2642 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:35	IND 08:55	3%	1%	0.7%	96%
F9 3761 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:25	IND 09:58	9%	4%	1.2%	75%
WN 4655 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:10	IND 12:35	12%	3%	11.7%	94%
F9 4837 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:00	IND 17:37	19%	9%	19.1%	79%
WN 4721 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:05	IND 15:30	19%	5%	17.6%	84%
WN 4923 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:10	IND 19:45	26%	11%	17.3%	55%
WN 4591 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:45	IND 23:15	26%	11%	17.4%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON