Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4544 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4544 MCO 07:55 → ISP 10:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 846 MCO 21:05 → ISP 23:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4544 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:55	ISP 10:30	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:00	ISP 10:41	9%	4%	8.7%	90%
F9 3942 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:10	ISP 09:53	12%	5%	1.1%	83%
WN 4840 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ISP 23:45	27%	11%	17.4%	62%
B6 846 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:05	ISP 23:53	27%	13%	17.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON