Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 1284 MCO 18:38 → JFK 21:29 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	4%	2%	1.0%	93%
B6 2584 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:47	6%	2%	1.1%	83%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	7%	3%	1.0%	88%
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:00	JFK 09:45	7%	3%	1.1%	91%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	14%	6%	15.3%	82%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	16%	5%	7.1%	68%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	18%	9%	16.7%	74%
B6 184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:15	JFK 13:59	20%	9%	15.5%	75%
DL 1668 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:52	JFK 22:59	23%	12%	17.1%	45%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	31%	13%	16.3%	79%worse than usual
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:11	JFK 18:59	37%	16%	17.1%	56%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:05	JFK 23:00	38%	18%	17.2%	53%
B6 1284 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:38	JFK 21:29	39%	18%	17.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON