Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2365 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2365 MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3913 MCO 19:21 → LAS 21:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2365 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:45	LAS 08:25	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
B6 2821 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:00	LAS 10:01	13%	4%	8.7%	89%
WN 4696 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:00	LAS 11:45	17%	3%	10.2%	88%
F9 1875 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:15	LAS 12:04	22%	8%	12.0%	90%worse than usual
WN 2648 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:20	LAS 19:15	31%	10%	17.4%	67%
F9 3913 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:21	LAS 21:17	35%	14%	18.1%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:50 → STL 08:20WN 2570	55m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	6h 50m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	55m Dallas	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	6h 20m	94%	84%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 10m Austin	AUS 09:25 → LAS 10:10WN 322	6h 30m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON