Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1573 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 1573 MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 798 MCO 19:12 → LGA 21:59 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	7%	2%	1.2%	91%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	15%	5%	9.4%	84%
DL 1362 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:56	LGA 16:54	19%	7%	15.5%	67%
AA 3114 American Flight history →	MCO 11:12	LGA 13:59	20%	8%	15.3%	76%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	22%	8%	16.8%	72%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:57	LGA 22:55	28%	11%	16.1%	59%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:17	LGA 14:59	30%	12%	13.6%	73%
F9 2432 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:10	LGA 16:00	31%	13%	16.2%	67%
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:17	LGA 17:01	40%	16%	17.5%	78%worse than usual
AA 2069 American Flight history →	MCO 18:42	LGA 21:29	41%	13%	17.1%	26%
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	44%	22%	16.0%	60%
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	51%	22%	17.8%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON