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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 7h 44m 95% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45WN 2680 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505 8h 40m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:06DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 3h 10m Las Vegas LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260 9h 00m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:50 → AUS 09:30WN 1435 3h 45m Austin AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915 9h 20m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 4h 00m Chicago MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413 11h 05m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:35 → BNA 10:35WN 2604 4h 00m Nashville BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427 10h 15m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:10 → DEN 10:00WN 2629 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259 9h 40m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON