Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2654 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2654 MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2660 MCO 19:35 → MDW 21:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2654 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:25	MDW 09:15	7%	1%	0.9%	88%
WN 1340 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:15	MDW 10:00	9%	2%	11.8%	88%
WN 4037 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:10	MDW 10:55	12%	3%	11.3%	80%
WN 2657 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:00	MDW 14:40	23%	6%	17.6%	52%
WN 2658 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:05	MDW 18:00	26%	9%	17.5%	60%
WN 4762 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	MDW 00:45	27%	9%	17.4%	50%
WN 2659 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:10	MDW 20:10	30%	9%	17.5%	51%
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	MDW 21:25	32%	10%	17.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON