tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3345 at 14:20, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3345 Southwest Flight history → MCO 14:20 MEM 15:35 28% 8% 18.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 4h 57m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → MEM 10:00AA 2110 6h 00m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 20m Houston IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest 7h 41m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 17m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 7h 46m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:55 → HOU 08:25WN 2636 1h 00m Houston HOU 09:25 → MEM 10:55WN 4013 5h 00m 95% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:50 → DAL 09:25WN 738 3h 00m Dallas DAL 12:25 → MEM 13:50WN 888 7h 00m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 19:37 → DFW 21:36AA 2117 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:31 → MEM 00:04 +1AA 1646 5h 27m 68% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON