Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4761 at 08:55, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4761 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:55	MHT 11:50	8%	2%	10.3%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 11:20 → MHT 12:50WN 1003	5h 10m	100%	90%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 12:55 → MHT 14:29AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont	7h 01m	99%	86%
American Details →	MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → MHT 11:37AA 5294 · flown by PSA	6h 37m	99%	85%
American Details →	MCO 08:33 → ORD 10:38AA 465	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 14:19 → MHT 17:47AA 4400 · flown by Republic	9h 14m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	MCO 09:30 → BWI 11:45WN 2612	3h 10m Baltimore	BWI 14:55 → MHT 16:25WN 1004	6h 55m	100%	74%
American Details →	MCO 09:01 → CLT 10:54AA 609	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 14:26 → MHT 16:46AA 5288 · flown by PSA	7h 45m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	MCO 10:55 → BWI 13:10WN 193	3h 40m Baltimore	BWI 16:50 → MHT 18:25WN 4736	7h 30m	100%	70%
United Details →	MCO 08:55 → IAD 11:14UA 276	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 12:16 → MHT 14:02UA 4930 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 07m	94%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 16:41 → ORD 18:59AA 2089	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → MHT 23:30AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	70%	47%
Southwest Details →	MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658	50m Chicago	MDW 18:50 → MHT 22:00WN 4250	5h 55m	69%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON