Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2894 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2147 MCO 19:40 → MIA 20:57 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	6%	2%	1.3%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	11%	3%	1.4%	90%
AA 2593 American Flight history →	MCO 08:35	MIA 09:49	13%	4%	13.3%	95%
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	17%	5%	15.4%	88%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MCO 11:02	MIA 12:14	22%	7%	16.9%	83%
WN 1516 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	MIA 22:10	35%	16%	17.6%	75%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MCO 15:39	MIA 16:50	36%	13%	19.3%	52%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MCO 18:34	MIA 19:50	39%	16%	18.5%	29%
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MCO 19:40	MIA 20:57	42%	15%	18.0%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON