Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2667 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2667 MCO 06:25 → MSY 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4656 MCO 22:05 → MSY 22:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2667 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:25	MSY 07:05	4%	1%	1.7%	93%
WN 2668 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:35	MSY 10:25	13%	3%	10.3%	87%
F9 3553 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:57	MSY 11:51	16%	9%	13.3%	88%
WN 964 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:30	MSY 13:20	23%	6%	15.9%	69%
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:53	MSY 15:50	27%	12%	18.6%	82%
WN 3004 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:00	MSY 14:50	29%	9%	18.9%	54%
WN 2670 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:15	MSY 17:10	31%	10%	17.7%	65%
WN 4656 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:05	MSY 22:55	32%	14%	21.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON