tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7 1h 00m Dallas DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268 7h 15m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 10:50 → OAK 12:30WN 322 8h 45m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 2h 45m Denver DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577 9h 05m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:10 → SAN 09:10WN 2695 2h 35m San Diego SAN 11:45 → OAK 13:25WN 3517 9h 15m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 7h 31m 85% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 55m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366 8h 15m 92% 76%
AlaskaDetails → MCO 07:37 → SAN 09:37AS 708 2h 53m San Diego SAN 12:30 → OAK 14:10AS 3218 · flown by SkyWest 9h 33m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON