tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45WN 2680 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431 7h 05m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 7h 55m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 08m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 2h 30m Chicago MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846 9h 25m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 2h 45m Denver DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080 8h 50m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 15:35 → ONT 16:30DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 8h 45m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → PHX 09:02AA 2015 1h 43m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244 7h 32m 96% 79%
FrontierDetails → MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:45 → ONT 10:04F9 2907 7h 29m 93% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:10 → MDW 10:55WN 4037 50m Chicago MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846 7h 40m 69% 51%
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691 48m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 7h 23m 62% 43%
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711 7h 06m 74% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON