Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 938 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2089 MCO 16:41 → ORD 18:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	5%	2%	1.0%	91%
UA 1150 United Flight history →	MCO 07:09	ORD 09:18	6%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	7%	3%	11.2%	94%
AA 3018 American Flight history →	MCO 07:51	ORD 09:59	9%	4%	1.1%	88%
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 10:52	ORD 13:02	9%	4%	11.2%	92%
AA 465 American Flight history →	MCO 08:33	ORD 10:38	9%	4%	7.1%	84%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	12%	5%	15.6%	82%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	MCO 11:38	ORD 13:45	15%	6%	13.7%	91%
F9 3043 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	ORD 09:11	16%	6%	1.3%	78%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	17%	6%	17.9%	72%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	20%	7%	17.4%	70%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	21%	7%	17.3%	58%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	MCO 15:10	ORD 17:28	25%	9%	18.3%	51%
F9 2791 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	ORD 23:10	28%	15%	17.4%	58%
AA 2089 American Flight history →	MCO 16:41	ORD 18:59	30%	10%	17.4%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON