tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 352 Southwest Flight history → MCO 21:25 ORF 23:30 28% 12% 17.5% 29%
F9 2288 Frontier Flight history → MCO 18:29 ORF 20:39 28% 16% 18.3% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 58m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35WN 550 3h 25m Nashville BNA 12:00 → ORF 14:50WN 4688 7h 15m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925 6h 30m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 09:05 → ORF 10:35AA 5326 · flown by PSA 5h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:15 → CLT 08:04AA 461 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → ORF 12:34AA 2254 6h 19m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:43 → PHL 12:21AA 2499 3h 11m Philadelphia PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52AA 4749 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:55 → IAD 11:14UA 276 1h 51m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 5h 22m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43DL 2702 1h 07m New York JFK 09:50 → ORF 11:27DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor 5h 27m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337 46m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 5h 41m 71% 50%
AmericanDetails → MCO 19:34 → CLT 21:39AA 2100 50m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45AA 2674 4h 11m 65% 39%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:35 → CLT 19:34AA 2082 50m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45AA 5622 · flown by PSA 4h 10m 71% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON