tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2678 at 20:50, with a 40% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2678 Southwest Flight history → MCO 20:50 PBI 22:05 40% 21% 19.2% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → PBI 09:56DL 1311 4h 26m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → PBI 11:45DL 1527 5h 30m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:03 → PBI 12:54DL 1190 5h 49m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:15 → CLT 08:04AA 461 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 11:04 → PBI 12:58AA 2279 6h 43m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21AA 2276 7h 51m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:40 → EWR 10:25UA 577 2h 42m Newark EWR 13:07 → PBI 16:09UA 1797 8h 29m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 1h 39m New York LGA 11:20 → PBI 14:15DL 2396 7h 15m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 2h 19m Philadelphia PHL 12:24 → PBI 15:13AA 2280 7h 45m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → MCO 14:17 → LGA 17:01B6 598 59m New York LGA 18:00 → PBI 21:05B6 1761 6h 48m 59% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON