tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 301 Alaska Flight history → MCO 17:29 PDX 20:34 22% 8% 17.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 8h 38m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539 7h 57m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 43m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667 7h 50m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 8h 52m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → MCO 07:00 → SEA 10:09AS 395 3h 36m Seattle SEA 13:45 → PDX 14:48AS 3204 · flown by SkyWest 10h 48m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → DFW 08:29AA 2975 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → PDX 12:40AA 2286 9h 10m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 19:37 → DFW 21:36AA 2117 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620 8h 18m 75% 43%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:47 → DFW 19:58AA 1288 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:49 → PDX 22:51AA 2283 8h 04m 66% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON