Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1228 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1228 MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2508 MCO 20:59 → PHL 23:38 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1228 American Flight history →	MCO 07:28	PHL 10:05	8%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 629 American Flight history →	MCO 08:40	PHL 11:16	10%	3%	6.7%	92%
F9 2506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:10	PHL 08:47	11%	4%	1.2%	69%
AA 2499 American Flight history →	MCO 09:43	PHL 12:21	13%	4%	6.7%	86%
AA 2101 American Flight history →	MCO 12:02	PHL 14:39	18%	7%	15.2%	83%
F9 1542 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:00	PHL 11:35	19%	7%	8.0%	87%
AA 2125 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	PHL 17:20	23%	9%	18.2%	52%
AA 2109 American Flight history →	MCO 17:37	PHL 20:22	26%	11%	17.5%	46%
AA 2065 American Flight history →	MCO 15:50	PHL 18:33	26%	10%	18.5%	36%
F9 3856 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:59	PHL 14:34	27%	12%	15.5%	70%
AA 2076 American Flight history →	MCO 19:59	PHL 22:43	28%	11%	17.5%	56%
WN 2679 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:40	PHL 17:15	32%	10%	18.3%	29%
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:35	PHL 19:19	36%	18%	17.6%	59%
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	PHL 23:38	37%	18%	17.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON