Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2680 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2680 MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2681 MCO 19:15 → PHX 20:45 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2680 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:15	PHX 08:45	8%	1%	0.7%	100%
AA 2015 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	PHX 09:02	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 2105 American Flight history →	MCO 17:20	PHX 18:55	21%	10%	17.5%	52%
F9 1085 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:00	PHX 10:30	21%	6%	11.5%	83%
WN 2681 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:15	PHX 20:45	29%	11%	17.6%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 31m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	6h 05m	96%	84%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 05m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 34m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON