Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4309 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4309 MCO 07:30 → PIT 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3451 MCO 19:20 → PIT 21:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4309 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:30	PIT 09:50	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 2684 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:45	PIT 13:05	13%	5%	11.2%	86%
WN 3379 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:40	PIT 16:00	21%	7%	17.6%	73%
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:38	PIT 18:15	24%	13%	19.0%	77%
WN 353 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:25	PIT 00:55	25%	10%	17.4%	48%
WN 2685 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:15	PIT 22:50	25%	11%	17.4%	81%
WN 3451 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:20	PIT 21:50	27%	12%	17.5%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON