Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 4661 at 14:41, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 4661 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:41	PNS 15:14	26%	15%	18.5%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50WN 7	1h 45m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	6h 10m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103	3h 47m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 36m	99%	86%
American Details →	MCO 06:15 → CLT 08:04AA 461	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17AA 5349 · flown by PSA	7h 02m	100%	86%
American Details →	MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 09:21 → PNS 10:09AA 2316	6h 09m	99%	84%
American Details →	MCO 07:51 → ORD 09:59AA 3018	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → PNS 14:24AA 4023 · flown by Envoy	7h 33m	96%	82%
United Details →	MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 10:38 → PNS 13:07UA 2672	6h 58m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:55 → HOU 08:25WN 2636	3h 35m Houston	HOU 12:00 → PNS 13:30WN 4795	7h 35m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 15:32 → CLT 17:30AA 2098	46m Charlotte	CLT 18:16 → PNS 19:10AA 5429 · flown by PSA	4h 38m	70%	44%
American Details →	MCO 15:39 → MIA 16:50AA 2092	1h 01m Miami	MIA 17:51 → PNS 18:48AA 3743 · flown by Envoy	4h 09m	65%	41%
Southwest Details →	MCO 09:40 → HOU 11:10WN 3174	50m Houston	HOU 12:00 → PNS 13:30WN 4795	4h 50m	51%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON