Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4545 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4545 MCO 07:00 → PVD 09:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2875 MCO 16:20 → PVD 19:17 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4545 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:00	PVD 09:50	4%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 4898 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:55	PVD 21:10	32%	11%	16.9%	63%
B6 1075 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:01	PVD 22:59	37%	13%	17.1%	69%
B6 2875 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:20	PVD 19:17	37%	14%	15.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON