Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1337 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1337 MCO 08:43 → RDU 10:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2690 MCO 22:05 → RDU 23:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	9%	4%	10.2%	88%
WN 684 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:20	RDU 10:05	10%	3%	10.3%	95%
F9 1040 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:21	RDU 09:16	10%	6%	1.3%	83%
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:10	RDU 16:07	21%	8%	16.6%	77%
DL 1370 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:00	RDU 21:55	23%	11%	17.4%	70%
F9 1234 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:47	RDU 18:47	31%	14%	17.9%	68%
WN 2690 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:05	RDU 23:55	33%	12%	17.4%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON