Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 770 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 770 MCO 06:05 → RIC 08:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 3049 MCO 15:20 → RIC 17:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 770 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:05	RIC 08:09	7%	3%	0.9%	70%
B6 670 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:45	RIC 12:50	17%	8%	9.3%	83%
WN 3049 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:20	RIC 17:30	33%	10%	18.9%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON