tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1042 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 11:37 ROC 14:24 22% 9% 11.6% 65%
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history → MCO 16:10 ROC 19:00 29% 11% 16.9% 42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 09:24 → ROC 11:35AA 5377 · flown by PSA 6h 35m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 2h 34m Chicago ORD 11:52 → ROC 14:49UA 3629 · flown by Republic 7h 40m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 06:30 → EWR 09:15UA 1105 1h 02m Newark EWR 10:17 → ROC 11:40UA 3647 · flown by Republic 5h 10m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 6h 01m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 11:00 → ROC 12:15WN 2802 4h 35m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 1h 26m Detroit DTW 10:20 → ROC 11:45DL 4120 · flown by SkyWest 5h 40m 98% 83%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:47B6 2584 2h 52m New York JFK 11:39 → ROC 13:12B6 186 7h 12m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 3h 12m Philadelphia PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont 7h 17m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 18:05 → EWR 20:59UA 583 1h 00m Newark EWR 21:59 → ROC 23:18UA 3643 · flown by Republic 5h 13m 72% 49%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658 50m Chicago MDW 18:50 → ROC 21:30WN 2878 5h 25m 69% 38%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:38 → JFK 21:29B6 1284 1h 00m New York JFK 22:29 → ROC 00:08 +1B6 1186 5h 30m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON