tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4709 at 20:50, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4709 Southwest Flight history → MCO 20:50 RSW 22:00 35% 17% 17.9% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089 4h 13m 97% 76%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:50 → STL 08:20WN 2570 1h 35m St Louis STL 09:55 → RSW 13:25WN 4940 6h 35m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 1h 17m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 7h 35m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 56m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:49 → RSW 13:31AA 2438 8h 01m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 1h 34m Houston IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361 6h 42m 96% 64%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:30 → PIT 09:50WN 4309 3h 20m Pittsburgh PIT 13:10 → RSW 15:40WN 649 8h 10m 100% 62%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20AA 2745 1h 26m Washington DCA 10:46 → RSW 13:24AA 2448 6h 27m 97% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497 52m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 4h 28m 70% 39%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658 55m Chicago MDW 18:55 → RSW 22:45WN 2881 6h 40m 74% 38%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 12:28 → BOS 15:35B6 252 47m Boston BOS 16:22 → RSW 19:53B6 2065 7h 25m 63% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON