Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2695 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2695 MCO 07:10 → SAN 09:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2696 MCO 18:50 → SAN 20:55 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2695 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:10	SAN 09:10	13%	2%	0.8%	95%
AS 708 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 07:37	SAN 09:37	15%	3%	1.1%	94%
AS 397 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:20	SAN 21:27	33%	9%	17.7%	74%
WN 2696 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:50	SAN 20:55	42%	12%	17.6%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 50m Austin	AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435	7h 15m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712	7h 29m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON