Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4310 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4310 MCO 07:20 → SAT 09:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4404 MCO 22:10 → SAT 23:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4310 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:20	SAT 09:05	5%	1%	0.7%	98%
F9 1653 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	SAT 08:56	15%	6%	0.8%	82%
WN 4834 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:00	SAT 17:50	23%	7%	17.4%	64%
WN 4404 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:10	SAT 23:55	30%	9%	17.4%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON