tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 872 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 872 Southwest Flight history → MCO 08:00 SDF 10:10 7% 2% 8.6% 90%
WN 4798 Southwest Flight history → MCO 20:40 SDF 22:55 33% 14% 17.4% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 6h 21m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 14m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35WN 550 1h 30m Nashville BNA 10:05 → SDF 12:00WN 670 4h 25m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654 3h 30m Chicago MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473 7h 30m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 7h 18m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 09:39 → SDF 11:24AA 5395 · flown by PSA 6h 24m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 1h 24m New York LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 06:30 → EWR 09:15UA 1105 50m Newark EWR 10:05 → SDF 12:21UA 3421 · flown by Republic 5h 51m 91% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 12:02 → PHL 14:39AA 2101 46m Philadelphia PHL 15:25 → SDF 17:36AA 5394 · flown by PSA 5h 34m 66% 43%
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:34 → MIA 19:50AA 2072 1h 15m Miami MIA 21:05 → SDF 23:42AA 647 5h 08m 69% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON