Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 347 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 347 MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 309 MCO 19:34 → SEA 22:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 347 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	SEA 12:12	12%	3%	10.5%	86%
AS 395 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 07:00	SEA 10:09	16%	3%	0.9%	82%
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	25%	10%	17.6%	68%
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 16:52	SEA 20:09	27%	8%	17.5%	77%
AS 309 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:34	SEA 22:45	31%	10%	17.7%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 58m	98%	85%
American Details →	MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12AA 2894	1h 08m Miami	MIA 08:20 → SEA 11:56AA 654	8h 55m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON