tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439 7h 45m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384 7h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 9h 00m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 25m Houston IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882 8h 03m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:15 → SJC 10:49AA 2572 8h 19m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:10 → SAN 09:10WN 2695 1h 20m San Diego SAN 10:30 → SJC 11:55WN 2121 7h 45m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956 2h 55m Baltimore BWI 12:50 → SJC 15:25WN 186 10h 45m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 7h 32m 73% 45%
AlaskaDetails → MCO 19:20 → SAN 21:27AS 397 58m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 7h 35m 65% 38%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 2648 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:10 → SJC 21:40WN 2352 7h 20m 62% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON