Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2691 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2691 MCO 06:05 → SJU 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 2868 MCO 16:25 → SJU 19:32 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2691 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:05	SJU 09:00	3%	1%	0.7%	80%
B6 1233 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 05:01	SJU 07:57	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
WN 2702 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:50	SJU 10:45	6%	1%	0.7%	85%
B6 2133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:05	SJU 09:03	7%	3%	0.9%	78%
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:01	SJU 07:57	9%	4%	1.3%	68%
B6 293 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:05	SJU 10:05	10%	4%	0.9%	93%
F9 2250 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:15	SJU 11:16	17%	6%	10.6%	87%
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:10	SJU 14:12	22%	9%	15.2%	86%
WN 1465 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:10	SJU 15:05	23%	5%	15.7%	88%worse than usual
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	25%	13%	17.9%	77%
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 23:05	SJU 02:05	25%	13%	17.6%	69%
WN 2707 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:05	SJU 00:10	27%	9%	17.6%	56%
WN 2706 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:25	SJU 21:30	27%	10%	17.6%	77%
B6 1433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:03	SJU 15:03	28%	11%	15.2%	56%
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:44	SJU 16:49	29%	11%	17.8%	79%
WN 2708 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:25	SJU 01:25	29%	9%	17.9%	21%
WN 2705 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:25	SJU 19:25	29%	9%	17.6%	76%
WN 1656 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:45	SJU 17:40	29%	8%	18.2%	63%
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:40	SJU 20:44	30%	15%	17.7%	72%
F9 1746 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:35	SJU 21:43	31%	13%	17.9%	66%
B6 227 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	SJU 17:59	32%	12%	17.8%	76%
F9 2868 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:25	SJU 19:32	34%	14%	18.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON