Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2025 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2025 MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1691 MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2025 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:15	SLC 09:55	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 2031 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:45	SLC 13:21	11%	3%	9.1%	85%
DL 2036 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:45	SLC 19:25	20%	6%	17.3%	56%
DL 1691 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:25	SLC 22:11	23%	7%	17.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	6h 44m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	MCO 06:40 → AUS 08:15WN 2594	1h 00m Austin	AUS 09:15 → SLC 11:00WN 403	6h 20m	96%	86%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:36 → SLC 10:22AA 2607	6h 52m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON