tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2709 Southwest Flight history → MCO 13:30 SMF 16:00 23% 7% 17.5% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122 7h 25m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 2h 10m Denver DEN 10:20 → SMF 11:55WN 1740 8h 35m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484 3h 30m Los Angeles LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 10h 04m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 25m Houston IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:07UA 2773 8h 07m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:30 → SMF 10:08AA 2633 7h 38m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45WN 2680 50m Phoenix PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781 7h 15m 54% 47%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084 46m New York JFK 18:30 → SMF 21:59B6 161 10h 02m 49% 30%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:20 → LAX 11:25WN 4495 50m Los Angeles LAX 12:15 → SMF 13:35WN 265 7h 15m 45% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON