tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 55m Houston IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780 10h 03m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:15 → PHX 08:45WN 2680 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 09:55 → SNA 11:15WN 3001 7h 00m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 54m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680 7h 03m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → DFW 08:29AA 2975 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 10h 01m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 10:30 → SNA 11:40WN 2092 7h 55m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 01m 99% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:25 → SNA 12:50WN 4175 9h 30m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 6h 58m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON