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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2710 at 20:50, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2710 Southwest Flight history → MCO 20:50 SRQ 22:00 31% 16% 18.4% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 22m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 29m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438 7h 08m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693 5h 50m 99% 70%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35WN 550 3h 15m Nashville BNA 11:50 → SRQ 14:45WN 677 7h 10m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 1h 52m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 8h 03m 95% 65%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 47m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 6h 33m 87% 61%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 12m 99% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON