Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2570 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2570 MCO 06:50 → STL 08:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 2635 MCO 22:30 → STL 23:59 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2570 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:50	STL 08:20	3%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 4501 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:50	STL 10:20	9%	2%	10.0%	93%
WN 3316 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 11:10	STL 12:40	16%	4%	15.9%	83%
WN 142 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:35	STL 00:10	27%	8%	17.4%	55%
WN 5048 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:05	STL 15:40	27%	6%	18.8%	67%
WN 3236 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:00	STL 20:35	27%	8%	17.4%	46%
F9 2635 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:30	STL 23:59	32%	12%	17.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON