tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4999 at 10:50, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4999 Southwest Flight history → MCO 10:50 STT 13:50 18% 5% 11.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432 8h 48m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908 8h 43m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902 8h 53m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889 9h 05m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12AA 2894 2h 55m Miami MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744 6h 58m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → DFW 08:29AA 2975 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943 9h 41m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:35 → MIA 09:49AA 2593 3h 19m Miami MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738 7h 25m 100% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 11:02 → MIA 12:14AA 1712 54m Miami MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738 4h 58m 69% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON