tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2717 at 13:45, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2717 Southwest Flight history → MCO 13:45 TUL 15:25 25% 6% 17.5% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 48m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 41m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 2h 10m Denver DEN 10:20 → TUL 13:05WN 1762 7h 45m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → DFW 08:29AA 2975 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:15 → CLT 08:04AA 461 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → TUL 12:59AA 2853 7h 44m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 20m Houston IAH 11:55 → TUL 13:36UA 5413 · flown by SkyWest 7h 36m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938 1h 04m Chicago ORD 09:40 → TUL 11:44AA 4135 · flown by Envoy 6h 14m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 3h 33m Chicago ORD 12:51 → TUL 15:02UA 6028 · flown by SkyWest 8h 53m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 19:20 → IAH 20:55UA 2215 47m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 4h 55m 72% 50%
AmericanDetails → MCO 19:37 → DFW 21:36AA 2117 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 5h 10m 70% 43%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 13:50 → AUS 15:35WN 399 55m Austin AUS 16:30 → TUL 18:00WN 4782 5h 10m 70% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON